Trump advisor’s plan signals maybe 2 Million dead could be the right number

TOMBOL: “The people pressing for herd immunity are never part of the herd. Ever.” 

Trump advisor’s plan signals maybe 2 Million dead could be the right number

DAILY KOS: Christopher Reeves Daily Kos Staff Monday August 31, 2020

US President Donald Trump introduces Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, Dr. Scott Atlas, during a news conference in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on August 12, 2020. (Photo by Nicholas Kamm / AFP) (Photo by NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP via Getty Images)AFP by Getty images

The Corona Virus has made a permanent change for the United States. 2020 will never be repeated, and young students can never replay their grade schools, middle school, or high school years. Graduations were lost. Businesses and communities suffered. President Trump has a new plan, and a new, FoxNews approved advisor, Scott Atlas. His plan is called herd immunity. What kind of cost would this plan have for the United States? Oh, somewhere around 2 Million dead.

Atlas, a radiologist is not in any way an immunologist. He is not someone who is specifically trained in the management of transmittable diseases or the treatment of diseases. Forbes pointed out that the strategy in Sweden isn’t exactly a success:

Most experts estimate between 40% to 80% of the population would need to be infected. However, as James Hamblin reports in The Atlantic, “the effects of the coronavirus are not linear. The virus affects individuals and populations in very different ways.”

“People are exposed to different amounts of the virus, in different contexts, via different routes. A virus that is new to the species creates more variety in immune responses,” he wrote.

Sweden, which has roughly the same population as the State of Michigan, tried to achieve a goal that they had to acknowledge was difficult, and had loss. Now, Trump seeks to hit this number nationally, and damned be the fact that American lives will be sacrificed and American families will pay the financial price.

Still, worrying about financial cost to the middle and lower class, and working women with children isn’t a big priority for the Trump administration or the new advisors, who lobbied against ACA and women’s rights in Forbes.

Well, I guess his next job is to ask everyone to go out and get infected.

COMMENTS:

lgmcp GrouchySquirrel

Aug 31, 2020 at 10:54:48 AM

Back at the beginning of March, Mark Summer published this table of simple math, showing the impact of a range of case fatality rates against % of the population exposed  for the US population of 330M.   Anywhere towards the middle of this chart was gonna be in the range of 1 to 3 million.

A CFR of 1% doesn’t sound that scary until you apply it to 75% spread.  So my money is on OVER 2 million.  But we’ll have to use excess deaths from all causes as the metric, because the actual virus toll will be suppressed.

projections.png

zongo lgmcp Aug 31, 2020 at 11:45:51 AM

Also, if you have uncontrolled spread of the virus through the population, the health care infrastructure, which actually has done amazingly well so far, will begin to collapse and those CFR rates will rise towards 2% or even 4% or even higher.  Which means if you get to 75% of the population you are looking at 10 million deaths or more.  Everybody in the country will know multiple people who died of it — about one in every 30 Americans will die of it. About 10% of the population will need hospitalization for it at some point, and there won’t be room in the hospitals for them, causing the CFR rates to go up.  All productive activity will stop, including food distribution, etc, as people simply try to survive the illness themselves or help their loved ones through it.  It will be a nightmare.  May this not occur.  May the people who are suggesting this be sidelined and this catastrophe be avoided.